The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with speculation as the ‘BTC Risk-off’ signal touches a historic low. This particular indicator, previously seen when Bitcoin’s price hovered around $4,000, recorded a dip to 23.7%—a crucial threshold that has historically preceded significant price surges. The current price of Bitcoin stands at approximately $97,000, leading enthusiasts to wonder if another rise of over 1,550% is on the horizon, pushing it above $100,000.
Understanding the BTC Risk-off Signal
The ‘BTC Risk-off’ signal functions similarly to a warning light on a car’s dashboard, providing insights into the potential risks associated with Bitcoin’s price movements. This indicator aggregates data from numerous blockchain sources and cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Bitvavo and Kraken, to evaluate the likelihood of a significant price decline.
A low reading within the blue zone suggests reduced risk for investors, whereas a higher signal level, particularly in the red zone, signifies an overheated market that may be prone to corrections. Investors eagerly watch this metric for clues about upcoming market actions.
The Significance of the Current Reading
The drop to 23.7% on May 5 marks the first time since March 2019 that the signal has reached such a level. Back then, Bitcoin skyrocketed from its low, ultimately reaching over $68,000 in 2021. Although there are no guarantees that history will repeat itself, the current metrics warrant attention.
The Maturation of Bitcoin
January 2024 marked a pivotal moment in the world of cryptocurrency with the launch of the first-ever Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This development has not only attracted substantial fresh investment into Bitcoin but has also contributed to stabilizing its price in the market. As of now, 9% of all Bitcoins are held by ETFs and publicly traded companies.
According to Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s volatility is now significantly lower—three to four times less—than that of stock indices. Between 2019 and 2025, the realized volatility decreased by over 80%, underscoring Bitcoin’s evolution into a more robust asset class.
This maturation is driven by increasing adoption, clearer regulations, and a growing perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Investors now view it as a stable and reliable currency that can withstand larger volumes of investment without experiencing extreme fluctuations in value.
A Bull Market on the Horizon?
There are signs that a renewed bull market may be emerging. Many Dutch investors are re-entering the cryptocurrency scene, with initiatives like OKX offering new users €20 in Bitcoin as an incentive to dive back into the market. This approach aims to lower barriers for newcomers and stimulate interest in digital currencies.
As Bitcoin and gold continue to increase in value amidst a weakening dollar, the market is attentive to ongoing developments. Stay informed through our podcast, available now for those eager to grasp the finer nuances of the market dynamics.
