Cheltenham Festival tips: National Hunt Chase trends – we help you find the winner of the race live on ITV at 5.30pm

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NH CHALLENGE CUP

Key trends:

  • Only one winner has been 10 or older, five-year-olds struggle
  • First-three finish last time has been a plus
  • Look north of 146 in official ratings
  • A previous Festival run is a bonus
PA:Press Association

THE age trends don’t help us this year as the whole field is aged six to nine.

But the first-three finish last time does get rid of a few — Beyond The Law, Clondaw Cian, Discorama, Gun Digger, Johanos, Just Your Type, Le Breuil and Mulcahys Hill.

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Next we’ll apply the official ratings trend and look for horses above 146.

That cuts out Impulsive Star, Plantagenet, Skipthecuddles, Warthog and Atlanta Ablaze.

That leaves with five — Ballyward, Chef Des Obeaux, Jerrysback, Ok Corral and Whisperinthebreeze.


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A decent run at the Festival before is a back factor and a negative for Chef Des Obeaux who was pulled up last year. Jerrysback and Whisperinthebreeze have not run at the meeting before.

That leaves us with the big two in the betting — Ballyward and OK Corral.

There’s very little to split them but the slightly stronger record of seven-year-olds means we’ll go for BALLYWARD.

National Hunt Chase trends tip

Ballyward (Click here to compare the best prices and place your bet)



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